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Thursday, April 29, 2010

Yanuslavia Scenario

Back to the UkrSSR: The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic's coat-of-arms (

So what exactly does Viktor Fyodorovych hope to accomplish? In 50 short days he’s managed to roll back nearly all the advances made in desovietization in the five years following the Orange Revolution. In 2004 Yanukovych saw the presidency slip from his grasp... he obviously took the charges of election rigging very personally. But the indications so far are that 2004 isn’t far back enough for Yanukovych. It looks like he wants to roll Ukraine all the way back to the USSR of the 1930s.

Eighty years ago, the Ukraine we know today was split among Poland and the Soviet Union. Today, Yanukovych’s words and actions are dividing the country along similar lines. He couldn’t care less for the western oblasts. His appointments to the “governor” posts in the western part of Ukraine are jokes. Yanukovych and his handlers knew full well the reaction Dmytro Tabachnyk’s ministerial appointment would elicit in the western regions. (Tabachnyk has repeatedly claimed that “galicians” are not even Ukrainian.) He is just one example. In terms of a range of humanitarian issues from language to history to media access, the big bully Yanukovych is repeatedly slapping western Ukrainian faces. And like the true coward a bully really is, he’s doing do so from afar. He has yet to visit the western part of Ukraine since his election. He has been to Russia twice.

Yanukovych was not elected president by a clear majority of Ukraine’s 36 million voters last February. He beat Yulia Tymoshenko by fewer than a million votes. Yet he is ruling in complete disregard to the regions of the country that did not support him. He has failed to become president of the entire country.

It seems that Yanukovych is borrowing a page from Vladimir Putin’s playbook on Ukraine. Recall Putin’s words to George Bush when the two were presidents: “You don't understand, George, that Ukraine is not even a state. What is Ukraine? Part of its territories is Eastern Europe, but the greater part is a gift from us.” Yanukovych’s presidential policies in his first 50 days suggest that he subscribes to Putin’s view of Ukraine that corresponds to the way Ukraine was divided by the Soviets and Poles in the 1930s. Heck, Yanukovych thinks the idea of building a Stalin monument should be put to a referendum!

The 1920’s saw a period of ukrainization and economic boom in the Soviet half of the country while the Poles persecuted Ukrainians in the West. Lenin’s nationality and economic policies initially allowed Ukraine to flourish until Stalin took the helm to take his “great leap forward.” By the 1930s, Ukrainians were dying by design and non-Ukrainians were “resettled” from Russia and Belarus to populate the depopulated areas with more pliable ethnographic material.

Of course the likes of Yanukovych – the son of immigrants from Belarus and Russia – will deny that Holodomor was genocide! Otherwise, they would be admitting that their ancestors came to Ukraine as a result of Stalin’s evil plan. It causes them psychological discomfort to acknowledge that the Soviet Union did anything wrong.

In the 1930s the mass murder of Ukrainians was accompanied by the killing of the country’s “spirit” in its priesthood and “mind” in its intelligentsia. That defined the “Soviet genocide in Ukraine” according to Raphael Lemkin, the man who coined the term genocide and the father of the United Nations’ convention on genocide.

In 2010, Yanukovych only supports and enjoys the support of the Kremlin-loyal Russian Orthodox Church while snubbing the Ukrainian churches. In terms of the pro-Ukrainian intelligentsia, Yanukovych won’t let them anywhere near the reigns of political power. The intelligentsia writes open letters of protest that fall on deaf ears... its members might as well be dead.

Yanukovych is doing everything possible to appease the Kremlin in its efforts to recreate the USSR, but he is only creating instability in Ukraine. With Ukraine’s independence in 1991, the Soviet dream has been dying a slow death for nearly two decades. It’s taking that long because change was doled out in evolutionary, peaceful doses. Yanukovych’s presidency is a frantic final stab at making the Soviet dream a reality. "If he is stopped now, Sovdepiya will die in a couple of years!"

Instability in Ukraine can result in protracted chaos or swift regime change. The worst-case scenario would make the break-up of the former Yugoslavia look like a schoolyard spat. God forbid. A bad-case scenario would see the Ukraine reorganize itself into a federation (another one of Tabachnyk’s dreams), with its constituent parts in the east and Crimea legally joining Moscow’s orbit (via Russia’s 2001 law on accepting new member states – or parts thereof - into the Russian Federation*). The best case scenario would be the quick and painless toppling of the Yanukovych regime before things get out of hand. And, like Orange in 2004, may it be more Gandhi than Guevara.

But those with an ear to the ground are hearing different songs in response to Yanukovych’s rendition of the Beatles’Back to the USSR” and it isn’t “Give peace a chance” any longer. This time around the prelude is the distinct chords of The Who’sWe won’t get fooled again”...

Gandhi or Guevara? Victor Yanukovych hasn’t been president for 100 days and the opposition is already calling for his ouster. Does the opposition have staying power, or will it fizzle out? Will the protests stay non-violent in the spirit of Gandhi? The next major one is scheduled for May 11.



Steve Bandera said...

No words to describe this. You had to be there. (April 27 protest)

der unbequeme said...

Как же приятно читать этот уязвлённый панический скулёж внука Бандеры.

Бандерня получает по заслугам за то, что было последние 5 лет. Разве Гниломордый старался быть президентой ВСЕЙ Украины? Разве не пытался подчинить Восточную Украину Западной? Разве не назначал в Крыму, в Одессе и т.д. холуйских западенских губернаторов?

Теперь всё это бумерангом бьёт по ним самим. И поэтому скулёж бандеровцев и искренен и лицемерен одновременно.

Steve Bandera said...

Actually, Yushchenko tried to become President of the entire country and to include everyone - including political opponents - in running the country. For that he was called "soft" by fellow Orange "revolutionaries." In contrast, Yanukovych has yet to even visit Western Ukraine let alone share power with any of his opponents. PS: This is not a Russian blog

der unbequeme said...

Не надо путать божий дар с яичницей. Ющенко делился властью не потому что такой добрый и умный. Кому вы сказки рассказываете?

У него другого выхода не было, потому что у его партии такая мизерная поддержка практически с первого же года его президентства.

А у Януковича достаточно поддержки. Вот она вам демократия.

Впервые за много лет у Украины дееспособное руководство, так как президент и премьер не дерутся как пауки в банке. Таково было желание избирателя. И не надо подменивать понятия, что тот у кого рейтинг ниже плинтуса - объединитель, а тот который получил от избирателей полноту власти - диктатор.

Steve Bandera said...

Yushchenko in 2004 was supported by 15.1 million voters, Yanukovych in 2010 by 12.5 million – a difference of 2.4 million.

If you take all registered voters into account, Yanukovych was supported by barely a third in ‘10. What was that about “democracy”?

And your statement on Yanukovych as “God’s gift”? Give me a break... The difference is that the Kremlin made Yushchenko out to be a demon, now it’s saying Yanukovych is from God.

At least Yushch tried to keep the country together. He had a lot of drawbacks, but Ukraine remained intact. Your guy won't even cross the Dnipro River.

der unbequeme said...

Я не называл Януковича подарком Бога. Это пословица, которая не имеет к Януковичу отношения.

Ющенко в 2004 выиграл с минимальным отрывом - и вообще непонятно выиграл ли он на самом деле. Да и это неважно. Уже короткое время спустя он сумел рассориться со всеми и большинство сторонников Оранжевой революции приняло сторону его соперницы. Объединитель просто супер... Посмотрите на его рейтинг, а также на результаты выборов в Раду, и вы поймете, сколько людей его поддерживали на самом деле.

Ющенко ничего не пытался. Если он сотрудничал с другими политическими силами, то от безысходности. А что касается народа, то неужели вы думаете, что перевирание истории, преследование русского языка, насильное втягивание страны в НАТО было способно объединить страну? Ющенко хотел, чтобы запад ассимилировал восток - это не объединение, а снова подмена понятий.

Что касается идеи подчинения востока западу, хочу привести цитату гетмана Павла Скоропадского:

"Узкое украинство - исключительно продукт, привезенный нам из Галиции, культуру каковой целиком пересаживать нам не имеет никакого смысла: никаких данных на успех нет и это является просто преступлением, так как там, собственно, и культуры нет.
Ведь галичане живут объедками от немецкого и польского стола. Уже один язык их ясно это отражает, где на пять слов - 4 польского или немецкого происхождения.
Великороссы и наши украинцы создали общими усилиями русскую науку, русскую литературу, музыку и художество, и отказываться от этого своего высокого и хорошего для того, чтобы взять то убожество, которое нам, украинцам, так любезно предлагают галичане, просто смешно и немыслимо..."

Я рад, что период бессмысленной конфронтации и противопоставления России закончен и что мы можем перейти к настоящему братскому и плодовитому взаимодействию, как это было столетиями.

Steve Bandera said...

Under Yushchenko’s watch both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko served as premiers. Both were given fair chances to do something with the economy. And both found convenient excuses for their shortcomings.

The “senseless confrontation” between Ukraine and Russia during Yushchenko’s tenure was unilateral and manufactured in the Kremlin. The Russian language was not persecuted. History was not rewritten - archives were opened. Yushchenko did not want the west assimilate the east. Ukraine is not in NATO – a referendum was never held. The bullies of the Party of the Regions blocked Parliament for months at a time – on orders from Yanukovych – and somehow Yushchenko was to blame... Perhaps he should have thrown Yanukovych behind bars the first chance he got. Now why didn’t Yushchenko do that? Could it be that he did not want to anger part of the country?

We’ll see what your goal of “genuine brotherly love and fruitful cooperation as it was for centuries with Russia” will bring. I wonder if Ukrainians will live longer, have more children, divorce and abort less, earn more, not worry about inflation and unemployment, see more foreign investment and trade, travel the globe, enjoy living standards like in the neighbouring EU... Oh, I’m sorry, Ukrainians can only be brothers with Russians, how silly of me to forget.

PS: Der unbequeme, have you ever even been to Ukraine? Your blog location is set to Germany and you write here in Russian? What is your real name and profession? Why hide behind a pseudonym and anonymous blog? After all, Yushchenko's "reign of terror" is long over.

der unbequeme said...

Если для вас тот факт, что Ющенко не посадил Януковича за решетку показатель того, что Ющенко "объединитель", то тогда и Янукович не меньший "объединитель", так как не бросал и вроде не собирается бросать Ющенко за решетку. Все же остальное, за что вы критикуете Януковича как "раскольщика страны", делал и Ющенко, только наоборот. А то что он давал власть другим - следствие безысходности и не доказывает ничего.

Я не прячусь. Меня зовут Александр Самойленко, я киевлянин, который в данный момент работает в Германии.