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Friday, May 2, 2008

22: Polls mix messages

Two recent public opinion poll results paint two very different pictures of the pre-electoral preferences of capital city residents. Both were paid for press releases that appeared on the last day of April.

I. New Image Marketing Group

Mayoral candidates
Chernovetsky 31.2%
Klitschko 18.5
Katerynchuk 16.5
Turchynov 9.3
Undecided 9.3
Omelchenko 5
Against all 4.8
Horbal 1.7
Pylypyshyn 2.2
Others 1.5

Parties/blocs
Byut Tymoshenko 23.2
Chernovetsky Bloc 22.4
Klitschko Bloc 12.6
Undecided 12.1
Regions Party 8.4
Nasha Ukrayina-NS 6.5
Katerynchuk Bloc 5.1
Omelchenko Bloc 2.2
Other parties 2.1
Lytvyn Bloc 2.1
Communists 1.5
GAK Hrom. Aktyv 1.3
Socialists 1.1
Party of Greens 0.4

New Image Marketing Group
April 25-28
1,200 telephone poll of 18+
“theoretical” error: 2.8%
Representation: Andriy Prokopenko, Dmytri Gromakov,
http://newimage.org.ua/


II. Sociological Forum research group

More than 60 percent of capital city residents will take part in the snap Kyiv city elections and nearly a quarter of the vote is still undecided about the vote, according to poll results presented on the last day of April. More than 14% said they will not cast their ballots on E-Day May 25.

Kyivan concerns
77.4% of respondents said they are unpleased by the city government’s allocation and management of land resources, 71.3% complained about car parking, 67.6% about the roads, 66.9% about medical services in Kyiv, 65.5% about Zhek communal utilities, 64.5% about law enforcement, 54.2% about public transport.

Mayoral candidates
Klitschko 32.8%
Chernovetsky 21.9
Undecided 11.6
Turchynov 7.2
Katerynchuk 5
Omelchenko 4.1
Pylypyshyn 4.1
Against all 3.9
Tiahnybok 1.3
Horbal 0.6 %

If the election was held in two rounds – a cause being championed by opposition forces – Klitschko would score 51.7% to incumbent Chernovetsky’s 23.8%, the poll found.

Parties/blocs

Klitschko Bloc 24.7%
Chernovetsky Bloc 16.6
Tymoshenko Bloc 15.2
Undecided 14.9
Lytvyn Bloc 5.1
Against all 4.4
Regions Party 3.9
Nasha Ukrayina-NS 3.8
Katerynchuk Bloc 3.4
Omelchenko Bloc 2.7
GAK Hrom Aktyv 1.2
Communists 1.2
Svoboda 0.9
Socialists 0.2
Others 0.2

Sociological Forum research group
4,000 apartment interviews from April 19 to 26, 400 in each of Kyiv’s 10 raions
Error: 1.5%
Rep: Volodymyr Kosenko, http://www.socio-forum.net


The discrepancies between the polls are significant in their support findings for political parties and blocs:

Bloc name, New Image, Sociological Forum
Klitschko 12.6, 24.7%
Byut 23.2, 15.2
Chernovetsky 22.4, 16.6
Regions 8.4, 3.9
Katerynchuk 5.1, 3.4

1 comment:

Faitvote said...

Clearly Ukraine needs electoral reform so as to e3nsure that the winner of the Mayoral race has the support of 50% or more voters.

Best option, least costs, is top adopt a preferential "Instant Ruin-off" voting system

http://fairvote.org