Specialists from the Klitschko Bloc estimate that each Kyivan has lost around Hr 25,000 ($5,000) in a year of rule under Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky. The Bloc’s press service told LIGABiznesInform that the value of land that was sold off “dirt cheap to various structures amount to, at a minimum, to Hr 85 billion ($17 bln).
During the scandalous Kyiv Rada session of Oct. 1 2007 alone, 4% of city land was doled out, with a market value of Hr 50 billion.
“The city budget received crumbs from that amount with most of the money sitting the the pockets of the dealmakers. If that wealth was distributed among all Kyivans – from children to pensioners – than every capital city resident would get close to 25 thousand hryvnia.”
The Klitschko Bloc promises to increase per resident wealth from several hundred hryvnia to several thousand hryvnia per year, if their man and political force are elected on May 25.
http://news.liga.net/news/N0822038.html
Showing posts with label Kyiv City. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kyiv City. Show all posts
Thursday, May 8, 2008
17: Fake Byut tents and newspapers
The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc charges that a fake issue of the Vechirny Visti newspaper is being circulated in the capital city and that false campaigners working out of Byut tents are gathering signatures from citizens, promising them an “honorarium” if Byut does well in the snap municipal poll. Prime Minister Tymoshenko has asked prosecutors to lay criminal charges on the people who paid for the fake interviews with her and Vice Premier Oleksandr Turchynov – also Byut’s mayoral candidate. Turchynov said that his fake interview contained false financial promises, reports LIGABiznesInform.
http://news.liga.net/news/N0823850.html
http://news.liga.net/news/N0823850.html
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
4 Kyiv mayors in 4 elections since '94
A look at the battles for capital city chief, their victors and second-place finishers. Two-round mayoral elections are nothing new to Kyiv - that's how Leonid Kosakivsky beat Volodymyr Cherniak from Rukh in 1994. There have been two mayors named Leonid, and two Hryhoris who failed in their electoral bids.
* - Election was held in two rounds. Round one: Kosakivsky 17%, Cherniak 15%, Saliy 13%
| Year | Winner | % | Runner-up | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Ivan Saliy | appointed | ||
| 1994* | Leonid Kosakivsky | 30 | Volodymyr Cherniak | 22 |
| 1996 | Oleksandr Omelchenko | appointed | ||
| 1999 | Oleksandr Omelchenko | 76 | Hryhori Surkis | 17 |
| 2002 | Oleksandr Omelchenko | 73 | Hryhori Omelchenko | 18 |
| 2006 | Leonid Chernovetsky | 32 | Vitaly Klitschko | 24 |
* - Election was held in two rounds. Round one: Kosakivsky 17%, Cherniak 15%, Saliy 13%
18: $100 x 2 million voters
The Gorshenin Institute’s Kost Bondarenko offered an estimate of the dollars being spent per vote in the Kyiv mayoral campaign. Bondarenko said that most election headquarters are resorting to the outright purchasing of votes – up to $100 per vote.
“This means that in Kyiv there is no competition between political programs or personalities, representatives of various political forces. At this moment the Kyiv campaign has been reduced to a battle of technologies with direct purchasing of voter votes,” said Bondarenko, according to the May 6 UNIAN commentary.
Meanwhile, the Kyiv Territorial Election Commission announced that there will be 1,026 polling stations open across the capital city on May 25.
In the Sept. 2007 snap Rada elections, voter turn out was over 63% in the seven electoral districts across the capital city: of 2.2 million eligible voters, 1.4 million ballots were cast at 1,028 stations.
Thus, the $100 per vote value would place the campaign in the $140 to $220 million range. That seems high, but is another reason why elections should be held more often – say once a year, with voters getting paid at the polling station upon casting their ballot. Such a measure could arguably help counter falsification, as voters would be sure to show up to collect at least a hundred bucks, in their hryvnia equivalent, naturally.
“This means that in Kyiv there is no competition between political programs or personalities, representatives of various political forces. At this moment the Kyiv campaign has been reduced to a battle of technologies with direct purchasing of voter votes,” said Bondarenko, according to the May 6 UNIAN commentary.
Meanwhile, the Kyiv Territorial Election Commission announced that there will be 1,026 polling stations open across the capital city on May 25.
In the Sept. 2007 snap Rada elections, voter turn out was over 63% in the seven electoral districts across the capital city: of 2.2 million eligible voters, 1.4 million ballots were cast at 1,028 stations.
Thus, the $100 per vote value would place the campaign in the $140 to $220 million range. That seems high, but is another reason why elections should be held more often – say once a year, with voters getting paid at the polling station upon casting their ballot. Such a measure could arguably help counter falsification, as voters would be sure to show up to collect at least a hundred bucks, in their hryvnia equivalent, naturally.
Poll gives Chernovetsky convincing lead
Two media outlets quoting presumably the same polling results reported drastically different numbers in the race for Kyiv mayor. The reports conflict on whether incumbent mayor Leonid Chernovetsky’s rating is 34.6 or 47.2 percent. The numbers for number on contender Vitaly Klitschko cover a five point spread.
On May 6, Ukrainian News reported numbers from Ukrainian Sociology Service’s poll of 1,500 respondents that was conducted in two phases between April 19 and 30 and has an error margin of 2.6%.
Poll of 1,500 respondents, April 19-30, statistical error: 2.6%
Source: http://uv.ukranews.com/k8/
Meanwhile, the same day a LIGABiznesInform correspondent reported slightly different numbers quoting respected sociologist Oleksandr Vyshniak, the head of Ukrainian Sociology Service.
Most notable is the 12.6% difference in support for incumbent mayor Leonid Chernovetsky. The spread on Klitschko is 5%.
Poll of 1,500 respondents, April 19-30, statistical error: 2.6%
Source: http://news.liga.net
That leaves 14% for the 72 other candidates, the undecided, against all, etc.
Who to believe?
On May 6, Ukrainian News reported numbers from Ukrainian Sociology Service’s poll of 1,500 respondents that was conducted in two phases between April 19 and 30 and has an error margin of 2.6%.
| Candidate | % |
|---|---|
| Chernovetsky | 34.6 |
| Klitschko | 15.5 |
| Turchynov | 5.7 |
| Omelchenko | 4.1 |
| Katerynchuk | 3.9 |
| Against all | 2.7 |
| Pylypyshyn | 2.3 |
| Tiahnybok | 1.5 |
| Horbal | 1.2 |
| Other parties | 2.3 |
| Undecided | 15.5 |
| Will not vote | 7.9 |
| Sums up to only | 97 |
Poll of 1,500 respondents, April 19-30, statistical error: 2.6%
Source: http://uv.ukranews.com/k8/
Meanwhile, the same day a LIGABiznesInform correspondent reported slightly different numbers quoting respected sociologist Oleksandr Vyshniak, the head of Ukrainian Sociology Service.
Most notable is the 12.6% difference in support for incumbent mayor Leonid Chernovetsky. The spread on Klitschko is 5%.
| Candidate | % |
|---|---|
| Chernovetsky | 47.2 |
| Klitschko | 20.5 |
| Turchynov | 7.9 |
| Omelchenko | 4.9 |
| Katerynchuk | 5.7 |
| Sums up only | 86.2 |
Poll of 1,500 respondents, April 19-30, statistical error: 2.6%
Source: http://news.liga.net
That leaves 14% for the 72 other candidates, the undecided, against all, etc.
Who to believe?
Saturday, May 3, 2008
21: Katerynchuk’s 38% potential
Mayoral candidate Mykola Katerynchuk estimates that 38% of the vote in the capital city is still up for grabs. His electoral math, according to a May 3 report on UNIAN, can be summed as follows:
Chernovetsky 25%
Klitschko 20
Turchynov 10
Omelchenko 7
===========
Only 62%!
“The absolute majority of the remaining 38% of voters have not made up their minds. I consider this to be my reserve,” said Katerynchuk, whose Ken doll face adorns the European Party of Ukraine’s propaganda together with EU’s yellow stripes.
Media reported Katerynchuk as promising to extend metro subway operating hours until 2 AM if elected mayor. Mayoral and city council elections in Kyiv will be held in three weeks: on Sunday, May 25.
Chernovetsky 25%
Klitschko 20
Turchynov 10
Omelchenko 7
===========
Only 62%!
“The absolute majority of the remaining 38% of voters have not made up their minds. I consider this to be my reserve,” said Katerynchuk, whose Ken doll face adorns the European Party of Ukraine’s propaganda together with EU’s yellow stripes.
Media reported Katerynchuk as promising to extend metro subway operating hours until 2 AM if elected mayor. Mayoral and city council elections in Kyiv will be held in three weeks: on Sunday, May 25.
Friday, May 2, 2008
22: Polls mix messages
Two recent public opinion poll results paint two very different pictures of the pre-electoral preferences of capital city residents. Both were paid for press releases that appeared on the last day of April.
I. New Image Marketing Group
Mayoral candidates
Chernovetsky 31.2%
Klitschko 18.5
Katerynchuk 16.5
Turchynov 9.3
Undecided 9.3
Omelchenko 5
Against all 4.8
Horbal 1.7
Pylypyshyn 2.2
Others 1.5
Parties/blocs
Byut Tymoshenko 23.2
Chernovetsky Bloc 22.4
Klitschko Bloc 12.6
Undecided 12.1
Regions Party 8.4
Nasha Ukrayina-NS 6.5
Katerynchuk Bloc 5.1
Omelchenko Bloc 2.2
Other parties 2.1
Lytvyn Bloc 2.1
Communists 1.5
GAK Hrom. Aktyv 1.3
Socialists 1.1
Party of Greens 0.4
New Image Marketing Group
April 25-28
1,200 telephone poll of 18+
“theoretical” error: 2.8%
Representation: Andriy Prokopenko, Dmytri Gromakov, http://newimage.org.ua/
II. Sociological Forum research group
More than 60 percent of capital city residents will take part in the snap Kyiv city elections and nearly a quarter of the vote is still undecided about the vote, according to poll results presented on the last day of April. More than 14% said they will not cast their ballots on E-Day May 25.
Kyivan concerns
77.4% of respondents said they are unpleased by the city government’s allocation and management of land resources, 71.3% complained about car parking, 67.6% about the roads, 66.9% about medical services in Kyiv, 65.5% about Zhek communal utilities, 64.5% about law enforcement, 54.2% about public transport.
Mayoral candidates
Klitschko 32.8%
Chernovetsky 21.9
Undecided 11.6
Turchynov 7.2
Katerynchuk 5
Omelchenko 4.1
Pylypyshyn 4.1
Against all 3.9
Tiahnybok 1.3
Horbal 0.6 %
If the election was held in two rounds – a cause being championed by opposition forces – Klitschko would score 51.7% to incumbent Chernovetsky’s 23.8%, the poll found.
Parties/blocs
Klitschko Bloc 24.7%
Chernovetsky Bloc 16.6
Tymoshenko Bloc 15.2
Undecided 14.9
Lytvyn Bloc 5.1
Against all 4.4
Regions Party 3.9
Nasha Ukrayina-NS 3.8
Katerynchuk Bloc 3.4
Omelchenko Bloc 2.7
GAK Hrom Aktyv 1.2
Communists 1.2
Svoboda 0.9
Socialists 0.2
Others 0.2
Sociological Forum research group
4,000 apartment interviews from April 19 to 26, 400 in each of Kyiv’s 10 raions
Error: 1.5%
Rep: Volodymyr Kosenko, http://www.socio-forum.net
The discrepancies between the polls are significant in their support findings for political parties and blocs:
Bloc name, New Image, Sociological Forum
Klitschko 12.6, 24.7%
Byut 23.2, 15.2
Chernovetsky 22.4, 16.6
Regions 8.4, 3.9
Katerynchuk 5.1, 3.4
I. New Image Marketing Group
Mayoral candidates
Chernovetsky 31.2%
Klitschko 18.5
Katerynchuk 16.5
Turchynov 9.3
Undecided 9.3
Omelchenko 5
Against all 4.8
Horbal 1.7
Pylypyshyn 2.2
Others 1.5
Parties/blocs
Byut Tymoshenko 23.2
Chernovetsky Bloc 22.4
Klitschko Bloc 12.6
Undecided 12.1
Regions Party 8.4
Nasha Ukrayina-NS 6.5
Katerynchuk Bloc 5.1
Omelchenko Bloc 2.2
Other parties 2.1
Lytvyn Bloc 2.1
Communists 1.5
GAK Hrom. Aktyv 1.3
Socialists 1.1
Party of Greens 0.4
New Image Marketing Group
April 25-28
1,200 telephone poll of 18+
“theoretical” error: 2.8%
Representation: Andriy Prokopenko, Dmytri Gromakov, http://newimage.org.ua/
II. Sociological Forum research group
More than 60 percent of capital city residents will take part in the snap Kyiv city elections and nearly a quarter of the vote is still undecided about the vote, according to poll results presented on the last day of April. More than 14% said they will not cast their ballots on E-Day May 25.
Kyivan concerns
77.4% of respondents said they are unpleased by the city government’s allocation and management of land resources, 71.3% complained about car parking, 67.6% about the roads, 66.9% about medical services in Kyiv, 65.5% about Zhek communal utilities, 64.5% about law enforcement, 54.2% about public transport.
Mayoral candidates
Klitschko 32.8%
Chernovetsky 21.9
Undecided 11.6
Turchynov 7.2
Katerynchuk 5
Omelchenko 4.1
Pylypyshyn 4.1
Against all 3.9
Tiahnybok 1.3
Horbal 0.6 %
If the election was held in two rounds – a cause being championed by opposition forces – Klitschko would score 51.7% to incumbent Chernovetsky’s 23.8%, the poll found.
Parties/blocs
Klitschko Bloc 24.7%
Chernovetsky Bloc 16.6
Tymoshenko Bloc 15.2
Undecided 14.9
Lytvyn Bloc 5.1
Against all 4.4
Regions Party 3.9
Nasha Ukrayina-NS 3.8
Katerynchuk Bloc 3.4
Omelchenko Bloc 2.7
GAK Hrom Aktyv 1.2
Communists 1.2
Svoboda 0.9
Socialists 0.2
Others 0.2
Sociological Forum research group
4,000 apartment interviews from April 19 to 26, 400 in each of Kyiv’s 10 raions
Error: 1.5%
Rep: Volodymyr Kosenko, http://www.socio-forum.net
The discrepancies between the polls are significant in their support findings for political parties and blocs:
Bloc name, New Image, Sociological Forum
Klitschko 12.6, 24.7%
Byut 23.2, 15.2
Chernovetsky 22.4, 16.6
Regions 8.4, 3.9
Katerynchuk 5.1, 3.4
Thursday, May 1, 2008
23: Clones and 1m ballots
With 37 parties and electoral bloc running for seats in the Kyiv Rada and nearly eighty candidates vying for the mayoral post in the capital city, voters will have to wrestle with meter-long ballots when they show up to vote on May 25.
The party/bloc ballot will not exceed 80 centimeters, according to the head of the territorial election commission Halyna Bilyk. It will be green in color, reported LIGABiznesInform on April 29.
But with 79 names on the mayoral ballot, voters will have to find their candidate’s name on a sheet of paper nearly 100 centimeters long. The hopefuls’ names will be listed alphabetically.
Clones & jokers
Electoral blocs numbered 30 and 23 both bear the name “Oleksandr Omelchenko” – the name of the man who served as Kyiv mayor for a decade while Leonid Kuchma was president of the country and during the Orange events. There will also be two Omelchenkos on the mayoral ballot: Oleksandr Oleksandrovych (former mayor) and self-nominated Leonid Vladimirovich Omelchenko.
The Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (#25) is challenging a last-minute change of the “Kyivsky Proryv” name (#17) to “Bloc Tymoshenko Kyivsky Proryv.” The second Tymoshenko bloc is comprised of the municipal branches of the Slavic Party and the Union of Anarchists.
Byut’s man for mayor Oleksandr Turchynov said that his political force will turn to the courts if the Territorial Electoral Commission allows the additional Tymoshenko name on the ballot and in the campaign.
For the list of 37 party and bloc names see: http://news.liga.net/news/N0822574.html
All 79 mayoral candidates: http://news.liga.net/news/N0822379.html
Byut’s beef: http://news.liga.net/news/N0822677.html
The party/bloc ballot will not exceed 80 centimeters, according to the head of the territorial election commission Halyna Bilyk. It will be green in color, reported LIGABiznesInform on April 29.
But with 79 names on the mayoral ballot, voters will have to find their candidate’s name on a sheet of paper nearly 100 centimeters long. The hopefuls’ names will be listed alphabetically.
Clones & jokers
Electoral blocs numbered 30 and 23 both bear the name “Oleksandr Omelchenko” – the name of the man who served as Kyiv mayor for a decade while Leonid Kuchma was president of the country and during the Orange events. There will also be two Omelchenkos on the mayoral ballot: Oleksandr Oleksandrovych (former mayor) and self-nominated Leonid Vladimirovich Omelchenko.
The Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (#25) is challenging a last-minute change of the “Kyivsky Proryv” name (#17) to “Bloc Tymoshenko Kyivsky Proryv.” The second Tymoshenko bloc is comprised of the municipal branches of the Slavic Party and the Union of Anarchists.
Byut’s man for mayor Oleksandr Turchynov said that his political force will turn to the courts if the Territorial Electoral Commission allows the additional Tymoshenko name on the ballot and in the campaign.
For the list of 37 party and bloc names see: http://news.liga.net/news/N0822574.html
All 79 mayoral candidates: http://news.liga.net/news/N0822379.html
Byut’s beef: http://news.liga.net/news/N0822677.html
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
41: 28 candidates and counting
(image from pravda.com.ua)The Kyiv election commission has already registered 28 (!) candidates for the capital city mayoral race – but that’s not all. Commission head Halyna Bilyk said the commission has until April 19th to register all candidates: “around 140” submitted applications by the April 15 deadline.
In other news, the New York Times ran a piece about heavyweight boxing champ and mayoral candidate Vitali Klitschko. The article includes a poll conducted by the “Institut Goroda” described as an “analytical research center in Kiev” by journalist Vincent Mallozi. This reporter has never heard of the Institute and efforts to find a website for “Institut Goroda” or “Institut Mista” (as it would be in Ukrainian), proved fruitless. That poll suggests the following breakdown:
Klitschko 29.8%
Chernovetsky 14.6
Omelchenko 9.0
Other poll results revealed in Kyiv on Tuesday, by another unrecognizable polling organization, suggests the following breakdown (poll conducted March 22-26, 2,006 respondents, 2.2% error margin according to the UNIAN news agency:
Undecided 18.5%
Klitschko 17
Turchynov (Tymoshenko) 16.6
Chernovetsky 16.1
Horbal (Regions) 7.1
Pylypyshyn (Lytvyn) 4.8
Katerynchuk (Orange-ish) 2.9
Martyniuk (Commie) 2.8
In other news, the New York Times ran a piece about heavyweight boxing champ and mayoral candidate Vitali Klitschko. The article includes a poll conducted by the “Institut Goroda” described as an “analytical research center in Kiev” by journalist Vincent Mallozi. This reporter has never heard of the Institute and efforts to find a website for “Institut Goroda” or “Institut Mista” (as it would be in Ukrainian), proved fruitless. That poll suggests the following breakdown:
Klitschko 29.8%
Chernovetsky 14.6
Omelchenko 9.0
Other poll results revealed in Kyiv on Tuesday, by another unrecognizable polling organization, suggests the following breakdown (poll conducted March 22-26, 2,006 respondents, 2.2% error margin according to the UNIAN news agency:
Undecided 18.5%
Klitschko 17
Turchynov (Tymoshenko) 16.6
Chernovetsky 16.1
Horbal (Regions) 7.1
Pylypyshyn (Lytvyn) 4.8
Katerynchuk (Orange-ish) 2.9
Martyniuk (Commie) 2.8
Also on Tuesday Orthodox Archbishop Pavel denied that he will run for any political force in the elections. But the Communist Party’s press service showed the media a handwritten declaration by His Eminency that suggests the prelate was seriously considering running for political office. (copy of letter above)
Saturday, April 12, 2008
44: Orthodox bishop to run for Regions, not Communists
The head of the Party of the Regions Kyiv city organization Vasyl Horbal announced the “first five” on his political force’s list for the snap Kyiv city council elections. Horbal will head the list that also incude:
2. Dmytri Tabchnyk (neo-Soviet historian, proponent of federalism)
3. Inna Bogoslovska (formerly of pro-Kuchma, Pinchuk-backed political projects)
4. Vladika Pavel (see below)
5. Mikhail Reznikovich (on-again-off-again director of the awkwardly-named Lesia Ukrayinka Russian Language Drama Theater, where Tabachnyk’s wife Tetyana Nazarova works as an actress.)
Horbal said that some Communists were the source of earlier rumors that the Orthodox Church hierarch was planning to run for the Marxists-Leninists, According to news.liga.net. In the March 2006 elections, the Regions won 16 of 120 seats in Kyiv city council.
Recall that Karl Marx stated that “religion is the opiate of the people” and that Lenin’s Bolsheviks spent 70 years pillaging churches, re-opening them as atheist museums and killing million of clergy and laity.
His Eminence Pavel (Lebid) is the Archbishop of Vyshgorod (just outside Kyiv) and the Father Superior at the “Holy Dormition Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra,” a.k.a. the Monastery of the Caves, guarded by warrior monks from the Rus Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate).
The word “cave” is a handy mnemonic for remembering how to pronunce Ukraine’s capital city name in the Ukrainian language. “Cave” is to “Kyiv” what “key-ev” or “key-eff” is to “Kiev.”
To further extend the allegory of “Kyiv-Cave” one need not look beyond Plato’s Republic to understand what is happening in Ukrainian politics: before finding the truth, one needs separate it from the false reality and the manufactured truth. With the voters as the cavemen.
2. Dmytri Tabchnyk (neo-Soviet historian, proponent of federalism)
3. Inna Bogoslovska (formerly of pro-Kuchma, Pinchuk-backed political projects)
4. Vladika Pavel (see below)
5. Mikhail Reznikovich (on-again-off-again director of the awkwardly-named Lesia Ukrayinka Russian Language Drama Theater, where Tabachnyk’s wife Tetyana Nazarova works as an actress.)
Horbal said that some Communists were the source of earlier rumors that the Orthodox Church hierarch was planning to run for the Marxists-Leninists, According to news.liga.net. In the March 2006 elections, the Regions won 16 of 120 seats in Kyiv city council.
Recall that Karl Marx stated that “religion is the opiate of the people” and that Lenin’s Bolsheviks spent 70 years pillaging churches, re-opening them as atheist museums and killing million of clergy and laity.
His Eminence Pavel (Lebid) is the Archbishop of Vyshgorod (just outside Kyiv) and the Father Superior at the “Holy Dormition Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra,” a.k.a. the Monastery of the Caves, guarded by warrior monks from the Rus Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate).
The word “cave” is a handy mnemonic for remembering how to pronunce Ukraine’s capital city name in the Ukrainian language. “Cave” is to “Kyiv” what “key-ev” or “key-eff” is to “Kiev.”
To further extend the allegory of “Kyiv-Cave” one need not look beyond Plato’s Republic to understand what is happening in Ukrainian politics: before finding the truth, one needs separate it from the false reality and the manufactured truth. With the voters as the cavemen.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
51: Poll shows Chernovetsky with 33%
Chernovetsky leads race, according to the results of yet another poll released on Friday April 4:
Chernovetsky 31.8%
Klitschko 20.8
Undecided 17
===========
Omelchenko 5.8
Against all 4.8
Lutsenko 3.6
Katerynchuk 3.2
Tomenko 1.4
Turchynov 1.4
Other <1%
Results presented by Nikolai Churylov, director of the “Socis” Center of political and marketing research.
Churylov said that 33.3% of respondents think that Chernovetsky will stay on as mayor, while 20.4% think that Klitschko will win the title.
The poll of 2,000 Kyivans was conducted March 27 to April 3 and has 2.2% error margin, according to Socis.
Churylov’s 32% is high compared to Vyshnyak’s 25% for the incumbent. Both men however agree that Chernovestky will come out on top.
Churylov has been a darling of the municipal pro-Chernovetsky media holding run by media master Kazbek Bektursynov since at least September of last year, when the two men declared that 66% of capital city residents are “completely satisfied that they are living in Kyiv today.”
See: “Kyivans disappoint sociologists in the pro-Chernovetsky” Khreshtatic newspaper
http://www.kreschatic.kiev.ua/art/1190836709.html
Socis site: http://www.socis.kiev.ua/
Chernovetsky 31.8%
Klitschko 20.8
Undecided 17
===========
Omelchenko 5.8
Against all 4.8
Lutsenko 3.6
Katerynchuk 3.2
Tomenko 1.4
Turchynov 1.4
Other <1%
Results presented by Nikolai Churylov, director of the “Socis” Center of political and marketing research.
Churylov said that 33.3% of respondents think that Chernovetsky will stay on as mayor, while 20.4% think that Klitschko will win the title.
The poll of 2,000 Kyivans was conducted March 27 to April 3 and has 2.2% error margin, according to Socis.
Churylov’s 32% is high compared to Vyshnyak’s 25% for the incumbent. Both men however agree that Chernovestky will come out on top.
Churylov has been a darling of the municipal pro-Chernovetsky media holding run by media master Kazbek Bektursynov since at least September of last year, when the two men declared that 66% of capital city residents are “completely satisfied that they are living in Kyiv today.”
See: “Kyivans disappoint sociologists in the pro-Chernovetsky” Khreshtatic newspaper
http://www.kreschatic.kiev.ua/art/1190836709.html
Socis site: http://www.socis.kiev.ua/
Thursday, April 3, 2008
52: Tabachnyk for Lightening Rod!
Ukrayinska Pravda reported on Thursday that the Party of the Regions will nominate Dmitri Tabachnik to run for mayor of Kyiv from that party. UP cites Regions heavyweight Andriy Klyuyev as the source. If true, then the Regions have decided to run a candidate who will a) not pose any serious threat to Chernovetsky and b) will draw attention away from Chernovetsky by focusing the national democrats on the “evil genius” Tabachnyk. Not much on the genius part, from that I’ve seen.
Original: http://www.pravda.com.ua/news_print/2008/4/3/74110.htm
Original: http://www.pravda.com.ua/news_print/2008/4/3/74110.htm
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
53: Chernovetsky wins first, Klitschko second round: poll
“Express Poll” results from “Ukrainian Sociology Service”(Oleksandr Vyshnyak) made public on April 2. They suggest that Chernovetsky, with 25%, would retain his seat if the election was held in one round (the system currently in place). The results also showed that support for the incumbent has doubled in the last five months (since Nov. 2007).
However, if the vote was held in two rounds, Klitschko would clobber Chernovetsky 47 to 32. Chernovetsky has the edge over five other candidates, including Oleksandrs Turchynov and Omelchenko, Mykola Katerynchuk and Yuri Lutsenko.
As for the race for 120 capital city council seats, the express poll found:
Klitschko Bloc 17.%
Chernovestky Bloc 15
Tymoshenko Bloc 14.4
Omelchenko Bloc* 7.6
Katerynchuk Bloc 4.1
Nasha-NS 3.6
Regions 2.2
Seventy percent of Kyiv-men said they will take part in the May 25 elections. More than 55% said they support the Rada’s decision to sanction the snap vote for Kyiv city council that has just completed half of its two year term. 1,000 adult Kyiv-men polled, March 22-27, +/- 3.2% Original: http://news.liga.net/news/N0816503.html
According to Ukrainian News “on March 27, Presidential Secretariat Chief Viktor Baloha called on the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense block to back Vitaliy Klitschko as a single candidate in the Kyiv mayoral elections.”
Meanwhile the Ukrayinska Narodna Partita (led by Yuri Kostenko) is considering Obolon beer magnate Oleksandr Slobodian as their man for mayor. The UNP said it will run independently in an April 2 statement.
Further to the right, the Kyiv city organization of the Svoboda Party on April 2 resolved to put forth Oleh Tiahnybok from Lviv as their man for Kyiv mayor.
Mykola Katerynchuk self-nominated on April 2.
Former environment minister Serhiy Kurykin will run for the Green Party
In other news, Volodymyr Lytvyn said he doubts two-round Kyiv mayor elections....
But don’t take my word for it! For a great election resource see Liga’s Bytva za Kyiv:
http://file.liga.net/event/18.html
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
54 to E-Day: Tymoshenko’s 60% flex
At a televised press conference in Kyiv today Yulia Tymoshenko said that her political force is lobbying for two-round mayoral elections not only for Kyiv, but for all cities across the country!
When asked about a single candidate from the anti-Chernovetsky (aka “opposition” on the Kyiv city level) forces in the current Kyiv race, Tymoshenko essentially said that Byut is the most popular political party in Kyiv and should therefore have first dibs on nominating a candidate. Meanwhile, Vitaly Klitschko’s press people said that their candidate has already weighed-in with his registration papers...
Back on March 20, Kommersant-Ukrayina reported that Byut is planning to win nearly 60% of seats in Kyiv city council, based on internal polling.
Rada deputy Anatoly Semynoha, head of the Byut Kyiv city organization, said that the bloc’s electoral list will be compiled by three parties, as was the case in the 2006 elections: Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), Reforms & Order and the Ukrainian Social Democratic Party. (The latter should not to be confused with SPDU(o). Although in Ukrainian politics you could never know.)
Kommersant notes that in last September’s Rada elections, Byut scored the support of 45% of Kyiv-men and women. Two years ago, in the last normal, regular general elections of March 2006, Byut won just 25% in the Kyiv city council vote.
For full report see “У Києві неофіційно стартує виборча кампанія”: http://www.parlamentua.com/ua/full/3929
When asked about a single candidate from the anti-Chernovetsky (aka “opposition” on the Kyiv city level) forces in the current Kyiv race, Tymoshenko essentially said that Byut is the most popular political party in Kyiv and should therefore have first dibs on nominating a candidate. Meanwhile, Vitaly Klitschko’s press people said that their candidate has already weighed-in with his registration papers...
Back on March 20, Kommersant-Ukrayina reported that Byut is planning to win nearly 60% of seats in Kyiv city council, based on internal polling.
Rada deputy Anatoly Semynoha, head of the Byut Kyiv city organization, said that the bloc’s electoral list will be compiled by three parties, as was the case in the 2006 elections: Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), Reforms & Order and the Ukrainian Social Democratic Party. (The latter should not to be confused with SPDU(o). Although in Ukrainian politics you could never know.)
Kommersant notes that in last September’s Rada elections, Byut scored the support of 45% of Kyiv-men and women. Two years ago, in the last normal, regular general elections of March 2006, Byut won just 25% in the Kyiv city council vote.
For full report see “У Києві неофіційно стартує виборча кампанія”: http://www.parlamentua.com/ua/full/3929
Monday, March 31, 2008
55 to E-day: Klitschko in the first round?
Mayor Chernovetsky said March 31 that it is unlikely the mayoral election will be held in two rounds instead of the current one round. The way the first past post system works, the winning candidate needs merely to win more votes than any other opponent.
Chernovetsky won the race in March, 2006 with 32% of the capital city vote, followed by Vitaly Klitschko (24%) and Oleksandr Omelchenko with 21%. Two years ago 21 candidates ran for the post.
The CVU held the “Kyiv primaries” on March 26 with 20 portable voting booths across the city. In a matter of three hours, nearly 7,000 (6,945) people were polled. They were presented with a choice of 7 candidates:
1. V. Klitschko 45.17 %
2. Yu. Lutsenko 8.89
3. L. Chernovetsky 8.74
4. O. Omelchenko 8.67
5. M. Tomenko 8.42
6. O. Turchynov 7.22
7. Spoiled ballots 5.18
8. M. Pozhyvanov 4.54
9. V. Kaskiv 2. 46
10 Other candidates 0.69 %
Klitschko would win that round by knockout. But is the sociology sound? The poll numbers will start flying soon...
Chernovetsky won the race in March, 2006 with 32% of the capital city vote, followed by Vitaly Klitschko (24%) and Oleksandr Omelchenko with 21%. Two years ago 21 candidates ran for the post.
The CVU held the “Kyiv primaries” on March 26 with 20 portable voting booths across the city. In a matter of three hours, nearly 7,000 (6,945) people were polled. They were presented with a choice of 7 candidates:
1. V. Klitschko 45.17 %
2. Yu. Lutsenko 8.89
3. L. Chernovetsky 8.74
4. O. Omelchenko 8.67
5. M. Tomenko 8.42
6. O. Turchynov 7.22
7. Spoiled ballots 5.18
8. M. Pozhyvanov 4.54
9. V. Kaskiv 2. 46
10 Other candidates 0.69 %
Klitschko would win that round by knockout. But is the sociology sound? The poll numbers will start flying soon...
Sunday, March 30, 2008
March 30, 2008: 56 days to elections
In order to keep the skates sharp, will try to keep this blog current for the next two months.
The snap Kyiv city council and mayor election campaign officially kicked off March 26, two months before capital city residents go to the polls in a vote of confidence in the current mayor and a test of cohesion for the orange/democratic forces at the Kyiv city level.
Elected in March 2006, Leonid Chernovetsky has just completed half of his four year term. His election came as a surprise to some, but was seen as the logical conclusion to a multi-year campaign for the mayoralty comprised of small gifts and acts of charity by the banker who saw the light and became an ambassador for Pastor Sunday Andelaja’s Embassy of the Blessed Kingdom of God for All Nations http://www.godembassy.org/. Under his leadership, Kyiv city council saw the redistribution of massive amounts of land in Kyiv, with deals benefiting politicians of all stripes and colors.
Chernovetsky’s 2006 victory was facilitated by votes being split between his opponents and an electoral system that is “first past the post.”
A similar situation may arise in these elections, with anti-Chernovetsky votes being dispersed by several candidates. Committee of Voters of Ukraine spokesman Oleksandr Chernenko suggested that a two round mayoral election, like the presidentials, may “significantly reduce the risk” of “accidental persons showing up” at polling stations “on the wave of some PR or general voter apathy.” Chernovetsky said he will not challenge the snap election in the courts (Deutsche Welle).
The new poll was supported by 246 MPs in the Rada across party lines. The Party of the Regions did not take part in the March 18 vote, and 13 Nasha Ukrayina MPs did not vote in support of the snap elections. With Byut providing the core, the vote would have passed without the abstainers from Nasha, but the Communists and Lytvyn Bloc provided the “yeas” to ensure the vote went through:
March 18 Rada vote: http://gska2.rada.gov.ua/pls/radac_gs09/gol_karta_zal3?g_id=974
May 25: Election Day
Official "go plant your potatos" holiday: April 26 to May 4
The snap Kyiv city council and mayor election campaign officially kicked off March 26, two months before capital city residents go to the polls in a vote of confidence in the current mayor and a test of cohesion for the orange/democratic forces at the Kyiv city level.
Elected in March 2006, Leonid Chernovetsky has just completed half of his four year term. His election came as a surprise to some, but was seen as the logical conclusion to a multi-year campaign for the mayoralty comprised of small gifts and acts of charity by the banker who saw the light and became an ambassador for Pastor Sunday Andelaja’s Embassy of the Blessed Kingdom of God for All Nations http://www.godembassy.org/. Under his leadership, Kyiv city council saw the redistribution of massive amounts of land in Kyiv, with deals benefiting politicians of all stripes and colors.
Chernovetsky’s 2006 victory was facilitated by votes being split between his opponents and an electoral system that is “first past the post.”
A similar situation may arise in these elections, with anti-Chernovetsky votes being dispersed by several candidates. Committee of Voters of Ukraine spokesman Oleksandr Chernenko suggested that a two round mayoral election, like the presidentials, may “significantly reduce the risk” of “accidental persons showing up” at polling stations “on the wave of some PR or general voter apathy.” Chernovetsky said he will not challenge the snap election in the courts (Deutsche Welle).
The new poll was supported by 246 MPs in the Rada across party lines. The Party of the Regions did not take part in the March 18 vote, and 13 Nasha Ukrayina MPs did not vote in support of the snap elections. With Byut providing the core, the vote would have passed without the abstainers from Nasha, but the Communists and Lytvyn Bloc provided the “yeas” to ensure the vote went through:
- 155 of 156 Byut MPs voted for the elections (V.M Sushkevych was absent).
- 59 of 72 Nasha Ukrayina Narodna Samo-oborona MPs (Bilozir, Martvienko, Plyushch abstained, did not vote/absent: S.O. Dovhy, Yu. Klyuchkovsky, I. Kril, P. Zhebrivsky, V. Petyovka, M. Polyanych, V. Topolov, V. Poliachenko, P. Yushchenko, Z. Shkutiak )
- 26 of 27 Communists (V.O. Demyanchuk did not vote)
- 6 of 20 Lytvyn Bloc (including V. Lytvyn, O. Zarubinksy, M. Syrota, but not I. Sharov)
March 18 Rada vote: http://gska2.rada.gov.ua/pls/radac_gs09/gol_karta_zal3?g_id=974
May 25: Election Day
Official "go plant your potatos" holiday: April 26 to May 4
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